When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS‐based NDSI‐derived fractional snow‐covered area data

Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m² study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why chromatic imaging matters

During the last two decades, the first generation of beam combiners at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer has proved the importance of optical interferometry for high-angular resolution astrophysical studies in the near- and mid-infrared. With the advent of 4-beam combiners at the VLTI, the u ? v coverage per pointing increases significantly, providing an opportunity to use reconstructed images as powerful scientific tools. Therefore, interferometric imaging is already a key feature of the new generation of VLTI instruments, as well as for other interferometric facilities like CHARA and JWST. It is thus imperative to account for the current image reconstruction capabilities and their expected evolutions in the coming years. Here, we present a general overview of the current situation of optical interferometric image reconstruction with a focus on new wavelength-dependent information, highlighting its main advantages and limitations. As an Appendix we include several cookbooks describing the usage and installation of several state-of-the art image reconstruction packages. To illustrate the current capabilities of the software available to the community, we recovered chromatic images, from simulated MATISSE data, using the MCMC software SQUEEZE. With these images, we aim at showing the importance of selecting good regularization functions and their impact on the reconstruction.     

Sources of mercury to San Francisco Bay surface sediment as revealed by mercury stable isotopes

Mercury (Hg) concentrations and isotopic compositions were examined in shallow-water surface sediment (0-2 cm) from San Francisco (SF) Bay to determine the extent to which historic Hg mining contributes to current Hg contamination in SF Bay, and to assess the use of Hg isotopes to trace sources of contamination in estuaries. Inter-tidal and wetland sediment had total Hg (Hg_T) concentrations ranging from 161 to 1529 ng/g with no simple gradients of spatial variation. In contrast, inter-tidal and wetland sediment displayed a geographic gradient of δ²⁰²Hg values, ranging from −0.30‰ in the southern-most part of SF Bay (draining the New Almaden Hg District) to −0.99‰ in the northern-most part of SF Bay near the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Similar to SF Bay inter-tidal sediment, surface sediment from the Alviso Slough channel draining into South SF Bay had a δ²⁰²Hg value of −0.29‰, while surface sediment from the Cosumnes River and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta draining into north SF Bay had lower average δ²⁰²Hg values of −0.90‰ and −0.75‰, respectively. This isotopic trend suggests that Hg-contaminated sediment from the New Almaden Hg District mixes with Hg-contaminated sediment from a low δ²⁰²Hg source north of SF Bay. Tailings and thermally decomposed ore (calcine) from the New Idria Hg mine in the California Coast Range had average δ²⁰²Hg values of −0.37 and +0.03‰, respectively, showing that Hg calcination fractionates Hg isotopes resulting in Hg contamination from Hg(II) mine waste products with higher δ²⁰²Hg values than metallic Hg(0) produced from Hg mines. Thus, there is evidence for at least two distinct isotopic signals for Hg contamination in SF Bay: Hg associated with calcine waste materials at Hg mines in the Coast Range, such as New Almaden and New Idria; and Hg(0) produced from these mines and used in placer gold mines and/or in other industrial processes in the Sierra Nevada region and SF Bay area.     

Age,origin and climatic controls on vegetated linear dunes in the northwestern Negev Desert (Israel)

The stabilized northwestern (NW) Negev vegetated linear dunes (VLD) of Israel extend over 1300 km² and form the eastern end of the Northern Sinai – NW Negev Erg. This study aimed at identifying primary and subsequent dune incursions and episodes of dune elongation by investigating dune geomorphology, stratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Thirty-five dune and interdune exposed and drilled section were studied and sampled for sedimentological analyses and OSL dating, enabling spatial and temporal elucidation of the NW Negev dunefield evolution.In a global perspective the NW Negev dunefield is relatively young. Though sporadic sand deposition has occurred during the past 100 ka, dunes began to accumulate over large portions of the dunefield area only at ～23 ka. Three main chronostratigraphic units, corresponding to three (OSL) age clusters, were found throughout most of the dunefield, indicating three main dune mobilizations: late to post last glacial maximum (LGM) at 18–11.5 ka, late Holocene (2–0.8 ka), and modern (150–8 years). The post-LGM phase is the most extensive and it defined the current dunefield boundaries. It involved several episodes of dune incursions and damming of drainage systems. Dune advancement often occurred in rapid pulses and the orientation of VLD long axes indicates similar long-term wind directions. The late Holocene episode included partial incursion of new sand, reworking of Late Pleistocene dunes as well as limited redeposition. The modern sand movement only reactivated older dunes and did not lengthen VLDs.This aeolian record fits well with other regional aeolian sections. We suggest that sand supply and storage in Sinai was initiated by the Late Pleistocene exposure of the Nile Delta sands. Late Pleistocene winds, substantially stronger than those usually prevailing since the onset of the Holocene, are suggested to have transported the dune sands across Sinai and into the northwestern Negev.Our results demonstrate the sensitivity of vegetated linear dunes located along the (northern) fringe of the sub-tropical desert belt to climate change (i.e. wind) and sediment supply.     

Phase transitions and path dependence in urban evolution

There is a long history of recognising and interpreting discontinuous change—phase transitions—in urban systems. In this paper, we use the aggregate retail model as an archetype to explore some new ideas. For example, we argue that the dependence of paths of development on initial conditions has been understudied, and we offer a new graphical analysis that demonstrates explicitly their influence on discrete change. We introduce an order parameter, and we plot this on a ‘results grid’ to facilitate the discovery of possible phase transitions. We illustrate the use of these new developments with an application to London. We show how retail developers can change the ‘initial conditions’ at a point in time and possibly bring about phase transitions by their actions. This also shows that it should be possible to account for the history of urban development as a sequence of initial conditions, illustrating path dependence. Secondly, the model could be deployed in relation to a new shopping zone, and the tools developed here used to calculate the minimum size of a new development in order for it to compete. We explore the ‘minimum size’ idea in relation to a new shopping zone in London.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using geological data, a DEM from ASTER images and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

An efficient and accurate method of generating landslide susceptibility maps is very important to mitigate the loss of properties and lives caused by this type of geological hazard. This study focuses on the development of an accurate and efficient method of data integration, processing and generation of a landslide susceptibility map using an ANN and data from ASTER images. The method contains two major phases. The first phase is the data integration and analysis, and the second is the Artificial Neural Network training and mapping. The data integration and analysis phase involve GIS based statistical analysis relating landslide occurrence to geological and DEM (digital elevation model) derived geomorphological parameters. The parameters include slope, aspect, elevation, geology, density of geological boundaries and distance to the boundaries. This phase determines the geological and geomorphological factors that are significantly correlated with landslide occurrence. The second phase further relates the landslide susceptibility index to the important geological and geomorphological parameters identified in the first phase through ANN training. The trained ANN is then used to generate a landslide susceptibility map. Landslide data from the 2004 Niigata earthquake and a DEM derived from ASTER images were used. The area provided enough landslide data to check the efficiency and accuracy of the developed method. Based on the initial results of the experiment, the developed method is more than 90% accurate in determining the probability of landslide occurrence in a particular area.     

A radar transparent layer in a temperate valley glacier: Bench Glacier,Alaska

Radar surveys of Bench Glacier, Alaska, collected over five field seasons between 2002 and 2006 reveal a surface layer of radar transparent ice in this temperate valley glacier. The transparent layer covers the up‐glacier half of the ablation zone and is defined by a distinct lack of the radar scattering events considered typical of temperate ice. Radar scattering ice underlies the transparent zone, and extends to the surface elsewhere on the glacier. We observed the layering in constant offset radar surveys conducted with characteristic frequencies ranging from 5 MHz to 100 MHz. The radar transparent layer extends from the surface to 20 m depth on average, but up to 50 m in some places. Bench Glacier's transparent layer appears similar to the cold surface layer of polythermal glaciers, however, observations in over 50 boreholes on Bench Glacier suggest there is no cold ice corresponding to the radar transparent layer. We conclude that spatially extensive radar‐transparent layers normally used to identify cold ice in polythermal glaciers are present in some temperate glaciers. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do free-ranging domestic goats show ‘landscapes of fear’? Patch use in response to habitat features and predator cues

One factor that influences foraging is predation risk. As a result, herbivores may not use landscapes uniformly due to spatial differences in perceived predation risk. Wild herbivores forage across these ‘landscapes of fear’; however, the extent to which domestic herbivores consider them is generally unknown. Using a grid of artificial food patches and measuring giving up densities (GUDs), we mapped landscapes of fear of free-ranging domestic goats on three substrates. In the first experiment, we related GUDs to landscape variables. Goats preferred feeding in open ground with firm substrate compared to a sandy riverbed or a rocky hillside. We suggest that differences relate to escape potential and the occurrence of ambush sites. Landscape variables that influenced feeding effort were patch visibility and plants next to a patch. In a second experiment, we increased predation risk by adding predator dung and urine into the habitats. In response, feeding effort declined across all three habitats. Furthermore, goats only responded to patch visibility and not plants next to the patches. Better sightlines increase predator detection and allow individuals to see group members. Our results indicate that predation risk influences the extent to which free-ranging domestic herbivores utilise landscapes.